The Week That Was: Quiet After Thanksgiving
Ontario auction barns came back from the long Thanksgiving weekend pretty quiet. Fed cattle runs were thin, cull cow numbers climbed anyway, and the story of the week for anyone buying cattle was the same one grain traders were telling: corn got cheaper, and light calves got dearer. Here's your week-ending-October-15 numbers, in plain English and real dollars.
Fed Cattle: Steers Slip a Buck-Fifty, Heifers Gain One
Fed steers and heifers sold through Ontario auctions totaled just 432 head, down 15 from the previous week. That's light. When the run is that thin, one good bunch of cattle can move the average on you.
- Fed steers (L&M frame, +1250 lbs): averaged $298.24/cwt, down $1.58 from last week and a chunky $15.32 below year-ago prices. Top of the market: $363.00/cwt.
- Fed heifers (L&M frame, +1000 lbs): averaged $293.82/cwt, up $1.60 on the week but $18.89 under last year. Top: $362.00/cwt.
- Dairy & dairy cross steers (+1250): $264.29/cwt average, down almost $12 from last week. Dairy cross heifers: $235.87/cwt.
Real dollar math: your classic 1,400 lb fed steer brought about $4,175 at the average this week, about $22 less than last week. A 1,200 lb heifer grossed roughly $3,526, up about $19. And here's the year-over-year sticker: that same steer is worth about $214 less than he was last October.
On the dressed side, Ontario packers paid $505/cwt delivered for A-grade cattle, fully steady, with multiple packers actively buying. Railgrade A steers and heifers both held at $505.00 on a carcass basis.
Cull Cows: More Cattle, Softer Money
Cull cow receipts jumped to 1,880 head, 257 more than last week and 106 more than a year ago. More supply met slightly softer money:
- Cows, all weights: averaged $163.32/cwt, down $1.22 on the week and $19.33 below year-ago levels. Top: an eye-popping $370.00/cwt for a fancy one.
- Beef cows specifically: actually improved, averaging $192.83/cwt, up $4.76 on the week and within $2.82 of last year. The good cows are holding their value.
- Bulls: $235.97/cwt average, down $12.45 from last week. An 1,800 lb bull grossed about $4,247 this week versus $4,472 last week, a $225 haircut.
A typical 1,400 lb cull cow grossed roughly $2,286 this week, about $17 lighter than last week and a sobering $271 less than the same cow a year ago.
Stocker & Feeder Trade: Middleweights Softer, Lights on Fire
Provincial stocker averages show a market that's backing off in the middle weights while the little cattle keep climbing the slide:
- Steers 700-999 lbs: $455 to $516/cwt territory, all a touch under last week.
- Steers 500-599 lbs: $630.33/cwt average on huge volume (581 head), down about $12.50 from last week.
- Steers 800-899 lbs: one of the few bright spots, averaging $509.14/cwt, up $16.11.
- Steers under 400 lbs: $816.08/cwt average, up $34.45 from last week. The light-calf market remains scorching.
- Heifers 500-599 lbs: $563.95/cwt, up $14.10 on the week.
What that means per head: a 550 lb steer calf cost you about $3,467 at this week's average, roughly $69 less than last week. But go down to a 350 lb calf and you paid about $2,856, up $121 in a single week. Somebody out there is still betting big on next summer's grass.
Sale-barn highlights: Ontario Livestock Exchange saw steer calves under 399 lbs top out at $1,000/cwt on Friday. Hoard's Station saw light heifers hit $970/cwt. Renfrew Pontiac's best steer calves reached $930/cwt. This October calf market has genuine firepower in it.
Processing, Exports & Carcass Weights
- Ontario federally inspected processing: 10,597 head for the week ending Oct 10, down 191 head from the week before; YTD 391,576 head, 1.7% above last year.
- Ontario live cattle exports to the U.S.: 1,455 head for the week ending Oct 3, down from 1,746 the previous week. Eastern fed cattle and cow exports were 51% below last year for that week.
- Carcass weights are creeping up: Ontario steers averaged 1,001 lbs (up from 994) and heifers 875 lbs. Heavier cattle are part of why total beef production keeps rising even with fewer head processed.
- Eastern Canadian processing: 5.8% above a year ago, though still 4.8% below the five-year average.
The Macro Picture: Cheap Corn, Steady Cattle, Weak Dollar
The biggest news south of the border was USDA's October WASDE report: a surprise corn yield bump of 2.7 bushels per acre versus September. December corn futures dropped 21 cents to $4.80/bu on the news. Cheap feed is good news for backgrounders, and you can see it in the breakeven table below.
On the CME, live cattle futures actually firmed: October closed at $227.55 (+$1.60), December at $228.35 (+$1.10), February at $230.88 (+$1.25). The Canadian dollar sits at 70.65 US cents, still very much doing its part to support Canadian cattle prices. U.S. cash cattle traded light at $218-223/cwt live.
In the beef case, Choice and Select cutouts slipped $2.00 and $1.00/cwt respectively, but ground beef is screaming: 73% lean trim was up $12/cwt and fatty 50% up $13/cwt on the week. Lean-meat demand is doing the heavy lifting in that boxed beef market.
Western context: Alberta dressed trade was steady at $495-500/cwt, and the 10-year seasonal index suggests a 4% rally into year-end, which would put Alberta fed steers near $311/cwt by December.
Breakevens for Backgrounders (Placed October)
- Steer calves: placed Oct 26, out Aug 27 — breakeven $327.44/cwt
- Heifer calves: placed Oct 26, out Jul 27 — breakeven $334.96/cwt
- Yearling steers: placed Oct 26, out May 27 — breakeven $342.42/cwt
- Yearling heifers: placed Oct 26, out Apr 27 — breakeven $330.99/cwt
Those breakevens are based on $6.94/bushel corn. With December corn near $4.80 US, there's realistic room below those numbers for anyone locking in feed costs.
Case & Bench Highlights
- Kawartha Lakes (Oct 10): cows averaged $175.68 up to $260; veal under 125 lbs averaged $1,413.58 per head, topping at $2,000.
- Denfield (Oct 13): 158 fed cattle on offer; fed heifers averaged $307.86; top cow hit $212.
- Aylmer (Oct 14): 222 cows through, averaging $167.19; veal over 600 lbs averaged $374.29.
Upcoming Sales to Circle
- Oct 17: Stratton-Rainy River fall stocker sale (8:30 AM); Thessalon Algoma Co-op farm-fresh calf sale (10:00 AM)
- Oct 21: Kawartha Lakes Calf & Yearling Sale (10:00 AM)
- Oct 24: Keady's Bruce Peninsula Presorted Charolais Calf Sale (9:00 AM); Denfield vaccinated calves & yearlings (11:00 AM); Brussels Bred Cow Sale (1:00 PM); Maple Hill Speckled Park Sale (7:00 PM)
- Oct 26: Maple Hill Limousin Influence & Local Vaccinated Calf Sale (7:00 PM)
The Bottom Line
A quiet, Thanksgiving-shortened week that still told the story clearly: fed cattle are holding a narrow range well below last year's money, cull cows are plentiful and feeling it, but the calf market, especially under 400 lbs, is charging hard, and cheap corn just gave buyers another reason to reach. Ground beef strength in the U.S. case and a 70-cent dollar remain the quiet supports under this whole market. For anyone placing cattle this fall, the math is friendlier than it's been in a while.
Until next week, keep your knives sharp and your math sharper.
Data sourced from the Beef Farmers of Ontario Weekly Market Report. Published every Saturday by The Butcher's Journal.